Pazed Power Company is trying to forecast electricity demand for 2018. The Company wants to take the Pazed power plant out of service for maintenance when demand is low in 2018. After the shutdown performance maintenance, getting the plant back on the line takes two weeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity to satisfy 1700 megawatts (MW) of demand while the Pazed power plant is out of service. The table below shows fortnight (2 weeks) peak demand (in MW) for the past five years covering periods from August to November. The dates indicate the end of a two-week period; for example 31-Aug. indicates a two week period ending on 31st August etc.

a) Determine the seasonal indices for each time period. [5 Marks]

b) Use Seasonalised time series to determine the period and demand in the year 2018 when the Pazed plant will be scheduled for maintenance. [15 Marks]

c) Briefly discuss the Delphi qualitative methods of forecasting. [5 Marks]

Total 25 marks

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Briefly discuss the Delphi qualitative methods of forecasting
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